Dr. Frank's What's-it: Michael Leeden on Iran: The

March 25, 2002

Michael Leeden on Iran: The

The mullahs want to turn Afghanistan into a second Lebanon, for they believe that if they can drive America out of Afghanistan, the Iranian people will lose hope for a democratic change within Iran. In their desperate actions, the mullahs have exposed their hand. As George Tenet accurately testified recently, Iran is in cahoots with all manner of terrorist groups, to the point where the CIA now acknowledges that Shia and Sunni radicals are quite capable of cooperating in killing Jews and Americans.

It shouldn't have taken so long to figure this out, of course. Iran and the PLO have been cooperating intimately since 1972, but the truth is always welcome, and one probably shouldn't quibble over a mere thirty years.

Ledeen adds that the administration "has failed to address the Iranian question with the gravity it deserves." This is true; though when articles like this appear on the front page of the New York Times, it's difficult to see how such neglect can continue. Iran is not only attempting to undermine US interests in Afghanistan, but is supplying Arafat with arms (in effect, waging an undeclared war on Israel through terrorist proxies) and harboring al Qaeda operatives as well. As Ledeen points out, there is a great deal of evidence that the mullahs are losing their grip on Iran, and I assume that US long-term strategy includes plans to contribute to their collapse. In the short term, however, the administration seems to be down-playing the Iranian segment of the Axis of Evil in order that this situation not interfere with plans for the impending attack on Iraq.

I'm all for this sensible "one war at a time" goal. But can the Israelis really be expected to compromise their security and offer concessions under such circumstances? It doesn't seem possible. (That's not what they're planning, according to this article in the Washington Post.) Ever since the interception of the Karin-A shipment, it has been clear that the supposed distinction between Arafat and Hamas amounts to little more than wishful thinking. A "demilitarized" Palestine is clearly not on offer. Regardless of what emerges from the Zinni talks or from the Arab summit, it is unlikely that the terrorist attacks will cease, just as it is unlikely that Iran will stop abetting them. Putting off the "Iranian Question" till after Iraq is settled is looking less and less plausible.

Posted by Dr. Frank at March 25, 2002 03:54 PM | TrackBack