May 31, 2002

More warnings about the Turkish

More warnings about the Turkish government's lack of stability:

Turkey was lurching into yet another crisis yesterday after the Prime Minister, Bulent Ecevit, was too sick to attend an important monthly meeting with the generals who wield much of the real power.

Fears are growing that Mr Ecevit, who is 77, is so ill that he will have to resign, forcing new elections.

Opinion polls suggest an election now would be won by an Islamist political party led by a former footballer, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. That would not only leave the second largest army in Nato and an important US ally that borders Iraq in the hands of political Islamists, but provoke a dangerous dispute with the secularist army, which wields the real power.


This article describes Erdogan as "the acceptable face of Turkish Islamism," "a hugely popular mayor of Istanbul, cleaning up corruption and pushing through municipal projects." The recent wave of successful European "populists" has been discussed in similar terms. I suppose it stands to reason that in the most "secular" Islamic state, you'd get radical Islamist populists. I'm sure the parallels are more rhetorical and superficial than substantive, but they're ironic nonetheless.

I think it's safe to say this guy probably won't get assassinated by an animal rights activist. So what would happen if an Islamist government came to power? Would the army threaten a coup and force them out, as they did in the '90s? (There seems to be some confusion over whether the Prime Minister's resignation would indeed "force elections." The Independent says it would. According to this report from CNN last week, "many analysts" believe Ecevit's departure "would not force early elections because the coalition parties have a sizable majority in parliament and would be likely to delay a vote as long as possible." But as they also point out: "it has been decades since a Turkish government served out a full term.")

Posted by Dr. Frank at May 31, 2002 10:39 AM | TrackBack