April 02, 2003

The Revolution may not be

The Revolution may not be leak-proof

Gregg Easterbrook has another interesting piece on inter-services squabbles about the future composition of US forces and Army leaks apparently intended to influence them. Easterbrook points out that the argument is really about the future rather than this war:

New weapons and tactics on display against Iraq do not have much to do with the "revolution in military affairs," which is mainly a proposal for the future. Rumsfeld has not been in office long enough to overhaul service hierarchies or alter the main currents of Pentagon spending. The first two Bush defense budgets both contained big boosts, but owing to the urgency of post-9/11 issues, serious discussion of priorities was tabled, the services each getting the traditional pie-dividing three-way split of new funds.

Moreover, since the "revolution" crowd mainly favors more technology, and no one in the Pentagon opposes technology--defense trends for decades have pointed toward increased use of electronics and precision guidance--it's not clear how different a "revolution in military affairs" would be from the current trajectory. At any rate, if such a revolution is coming, it is at least two more budget cycles away. New weapons and infantry information systems being used against Iraq represent incremental improvements that were in the works before Rumsfeld arrived at the Pentagon.

But if Rumsfeld is a long-serving secretary, the Army knows he will eventually come after its budget, since the "revolution's" most cherished principle is that land forces are growing less and less important in an era of long-range precision air weapons...


"Keep looking for leaks on multiple fronts," he adds.

Posted by Dr. Frank at April 2, 2003 09:30 AM | TrackBack